Bailo, a former executive at Nissan North America Inc. who was appointed last year as president and CEO of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Ann Arbor, Mich., provided an overview of future mobility and some of the opportunities plastics and composites may have in an evolving automotive industry during a May 1 keynote address at the Society of Plastics Engineers' 13th annual Auto Epcon.
"The most important impact of new mobility services on the automotive industry will not be on the volume of vehicle sales — because there's a lot of debate about that — but on how customers interact with vehicles and with their expectations and uses of those vehicles," Bailo said.
The average consumer price of a vehicle now is about $35,000, she explained, and the average monthly payment is $543.
"If you think about a family that has yearly earnings of, let's say, $24,000, there's no way that's affordable," she said. "That's why we have to think about the democratization of mobility."
Getting people where they need to go
Mobility is a term used often, especially at conferences that cover future automotive trends and the ongoing developments in technology that will bring us to a fully autonomous driving world, or so the mobility gurus say. But what does the word mean, and how can it be applied to the present situation?
The concept is not about driving less, Bailo clarified, but about people needing to get from point A to point B.
"Mobility is really the movement of people or goods from place to place, job to job," she said. "It really provides ladders of opportunity."
She added: "When we talk about mobility, let's talk about just getting people to where they need to go to improve their quality of life. And that brings us to an entirely different problem than driving less."
But smart mobility, she said, relies on the successful execution of, as mentioned earlier, the triple zero: zero accidents and fatalities, zero carbon footprint and zero stress.
For Bailo's description of a triple zero, multimodal society — where people are walking and biking, while easily and safely interacting with autonomous, connected, electric and shared vehicles — to become a reality, it will require the elimination of a certain "security blanket," she said. And that security blanket is your personal vehicle.
"The only way we're going to solve the congestion issue is not by everybody owning their own autonomous vehicle, but by sharing vehicles and having a multimodal society, which means you need a lot more people walking [and] biking," she said.
Bailo is quick to admit that in order for people to get rid of the security blanket, however, it requires seamless alternatives that are not quite available to consumers yet.
"For example, if you go to a city today, you probably have to download about four to five different apps to be able to figure out how to get around the city. There's probably one for the bus system, one for the subway system, one for Uber, Lyft," she said. "We need to have that all in one place: one integrated system where you just say you want to go from A to B, and you get a menu of options."
Other challenges to a connected and autonomous vehicle future also remain, such as murkiness around insurance and liability, as many in the industry saw earlier this year with headline-grabbing accidents involving Uber Technologies Inc. and Tesla Inc.
But the biggest issue, Bailo said, is public policy. Many states, including Michigan 2016, are establishing their own rules allowing automakers and tech companies to develop autonomous vehicles without guidance from a federal policy that would coordinate testing and regulation among all 50 states.
For example, Michigan's policy allows vehicles without steering wheels or brake pedals to drive on public roads, but that is not the case for other states across the nation, Bailo said.
"Most states today say you need a steering wheel and pedals to be able to put a vehicle on public roads. That has to change, clearly," she said. "It's being challenged now in the federal government by [General Motors Co.], and we'll see how that goes."
More miles, more options, more plastics
There are still variables and many unknowns as this future mobility landscape unfolds, but one thing is certain: "Our entire way of urban planning is going to change," Bailo said.
"We think we're going to see an increase in overall vehicle miles traveled, which makes sense," she added. "You're going to have cars that are never going to stop."
With increased mileage and vehicle wear and tear, topics focusing on design, lightweighting, durability, safety, function and personalization all present opportunities for plastics and composites.
On the interior, as mobility evolves as a service, personalization will have a significant role and plastics will enable better sensor integration and also provide housing for more electronics. On the exterior, plastics and composites will improve aerodynamics in the vehicle structure and offer more lightweighting opportunities, Bailo explained.
"When vehicles never stop, it's going to be easy, very easy, to see 100,000 miles per year in some of these automated, connected, electric and shared vehicles," she said, adding that quick part replacement via 3D printing is another growing interest area.
While populations in less dense or more rural areas are still a challenge in terms of access to mobility services, urban areas present a great opportunity for ditching personal vehicles in favor of mobility packages that are suited to individual needs, Bailo said.
Cities and densely populated areas are what Bailo called "happy zones" for electric vehicles thanks to short distances and frequent stopping. And if shared vehicles are to be synonymous with electric vehicles, then it presents "one of the biggest opportunities" for composites in terms of battery cases.
"We believe, clearly, plastics have a significant role in the future of mobility," she said.
"We all know that the [automakers] are fairly risk-averse," she added. "Using new materials takes a long time, so it's going to be really important that you start working hand-in-hand with the [automakers] early, so that these things can be validated."